PREDICTING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, QUICK FLOW, AND RECHARGE IN THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THROUGH 2100
Date of Award
2025
Degree Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science in Biological and Environmental Sciences (MSBES)
Specialization
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Department
Geosciences
First Advisor
Chris Russoniello
Abstract
Groundwater pumping has more than doubled since 1950 across the United States and now accounts for more than 50% of water use in much of the country. These high pumping rates have exceeded recharge in many aquifers, especially in the dry Western United States. As a result, water levels are declining, increasing water scarcity for humans, and causing various adverse ecosystem impacts. So, predictions of future groundwater recharge rates, especially in the face of changing climates, are necessary for informing future water management practices. While historical groundwater recharge rates have been estimated across broad geographic regions, high-resolution predictions of future recharge at the scale of the contiguous United States - suitable for informing water resource management - are still lacking. Here, we project effective precipitation, evapotranspiration, quick flow, and groundwater recharge rates for the contiguous United States through the year 2100. Using LOCA-2 downscaled precipitation and temperature data, we applied empirical models from Reitz et al. (2017) to predict annual effective precipitation, evapotranspiration, quick flow, and recharge rates at 800-meter resolution through 2100 under two climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0). These high-resolution projections can support water resource managers, inform hydrologic modeling efforts, and guide climate adaptation planning. We found that groundwater recharge is generally declining across the U.S under all scenarios, but with variability at local and regional scales, emphasizing the importance of local water management strategies in response to a changing climate.
Recommended Citation
Aldenberg, Paige, "PREDICTING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, QUICK FLOW, AND RECHARGE IN THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THROUGH 2100" (2025). Open Access Master's Theses. Paper 2626.
https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/theses/2626