Document Type

Article

Date of Original Version

2024

Department

Political Science

Abstract

Objectives: In this article, we consider how the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluations of Donald Trump combined to influence Americans' attitudes toward U.S. trade practices with China. We suggest that psychological factors—such as confirmation bias and transfer of grievances—influence how individuals evaluate the costs and benefits of trade. Specifically, we argue that the severity of the pandemic (reflected by both cumulative deaths and news coverage of the pandemic) and the rhetoric of (then) President Trump came together to influence Americans’ attitudes toward trade with China.

Methods: To assess the COVID effect, the Trump effect, and their interaction effect on trade opinion, we merge data from 39 waves of the weekly Nationscape surveys, conducted from October 2019 to July 2020 (N = 62,171), with data on weekly COVID coverage for nine national news sources and cumulative state-level weekly data on COVID-related deaths. We estimate our models using hierarchical ordered logit.

Results: Our findings suggest that COVID-related news coverage, cumulative COVID deaths, and Americans’ favorability toward Donald Trump have strong positive effects on Americans' support for trade tariffs on Chinese imports. Further, we find that the effects of COVID deaths on attitudes toward China tariffs are moderated by Trump favorability, with the effect of COVID deaths significantly stronger among Trump favorables.

Conclusion: The COVID pandemic and evaluations of Donald Trump worked both independently and together to shape Americans’ attitudes toward China tariffs.

Publication Title, e.g., Journal

Social Science Quarterly

Volume

105

Issue

7

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