Beyond the Rust: Union Decline, Economic Shock, and White Working-Class Realignment in the Midwest
Document Type
Presentation
Date of Original Version
3-27-2026
Abstract
In the aftermath of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Donald J. Trump secured unexpected victories in five Midwestern states, reversing decades of Democratic dominance. This political shift highlighted the weakening of traditional Democratic support among the white working class in economically struggling industrial regions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the socio-economic and structural factors contributing to this realignment, with a particular focus on the role of declining labor unions and the manufacturing industry. Using Henry County (Illinois) as a representative case study, a quantitative survey was conducted to analyze voter behavior, supported by economic data across multiple Midwestern "swing counties." The results suggest a strong connection between economic downturns (particularly in the manufacturing sector) and increased support for Republican candidates. Furthermore, union decline significantly weakened Democratic mobilization efforts. The study concludes that Trump’s 2016 coalition was not a short-term anomaly, but the culmination of long-term economic and institutional transformations that redefined voter identity in the industrial heartland.
Recommended Citation
Labriola, Nicholas, "Beyond the Rust: Union Decline, Economic Shock, and White Working-Class Realignment in the Midwest" (2026). Oral Presentations. Paper 30.
https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/gradcon2026-presentations/30