Assessing the Reservoir Inflow Relationship for Effective Flood Mitigation: A Hydrologic Modeling Approach for Scituate Reservoir, Rhode Island

Document Type

Article

Date of Original Version

3-1-2024

Abstract

Major drinking water reservoirs can mitigate downstream flooding after extreme weather events if reservoir management decisions are guided by well parameterized and calibrated computational models of reservoir inflow. We applied a hydrologic modeling approach to the inflow of a major drinking water reservoir. Three highly parameterized models were developed for assessing the spatial and temporal relationship between high and low stream flows as a function of 1) surface/subsurface runoff process and channel routing parameters (FSP), 2) flow timing and snow accumulation (SSP) and, 3) combination of FSP and SSP (COMP). Multi-site calibration and multi-site parameterization were used to evaluate the model performance. We found a positive relationship between FSP or COMP with high flow in the watershed, but the SSP modeling parameters alone were found insufficient, capturing high flow conditions accurately even though the SSP model uncertainty was less than the FSP and COMP. The spatial and temporal prediction of low flow conditions resulted in an overestimation by 3% from observed low flow which is acceptable for assessing low flow impact. The approach to model parameterization and the results presented will have positive impacts on reservoir management during high or low flow times.

Publication Title, e.g., Journal

Journal of the New England Water Works Association

Volume

138

Issue

1

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