A time series investigation of three nicotine regulation models
Date of Original Version
Time series data were collected twice daily for 62 days from 10 individuals on three variables related to smoking habit strength: number of cigarettes smoked, salivary cotinine, and carbon monoxide. The two purposes of this study were: (a) to evaluate which time series model(s) best fits each of the measures; and (b) to determine which model of nicotine regulation is consistent with the data. Three models of nicotine regulation were considered: (a) nicotine fixed effect; (b) nicotine regulation; and (c) multiple regulation. These models provide different predictions about the size and direction of the lag-one autocorrelation. Each measure was described in terms of one of a family of time series models represented mathematically as ARIMA (p, d, q). Models varied by individual, but a single model described the majority of subjects for all three variables. The clearest model identification was for the number of cigarettes smoked where an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model with a moderate to strong negative dependency fit the majority of the subjects. This provided strong support for the multiple regulation model. An appendix provides a brief review of time series methodology. © 1992.
Velicer, Wayne F., Colleen A. Redding, Robyn L. Richmond, Janet Greeley, and Wendy Swift. "A time series investigation of three nicotine regulation models." Addictive Behaviors 17, 4 (1992): 325-345. doi:10.1016/0306-4603(92)90039-X.