Waiting on The Fed

Luke M. Stabile, University of Rhode Island

Document Type Article


The year 2015 will, without a doubt, make a mark in history as one of the most remarkable economic periods of the 21st century. After 8 years of interest rates being at zero, the Federal Open Market Committee decided it was in the best interest of the U.S. economy to increase the target federal fund rates by 25 basis points. Over the last year the U.S. Economy has become somewhat of an enigma. Century long correlations cease to exist, metrics that measure the economy's progress are being questioned, security prices and spreads are at record levels, and the FOMC had to steer the U.S. economy back towards traditional fundamentals.

Throughout the last six months I have had a front row seat to the media circus that is the U.S. economy. I have prepared a 50-page brief on the past, present, and future conditions of the U.S. economy, monetary policy, and analysis of several security markets. This brief offers a condensed analysis and unique interpretation of market conditions. Although my initial forecasts were proven far too dovish for an already procrastinating Fed, this project has expanded my knowledge on the topic and assisted me during my recent job search. I can say with certainty that my recent experience with spreads helped me land my position as a fixed income analyst with J.P. Morgan. In addition, this project required me to stay abreast of market trends and current news throughout the school year; this could have easily become low in the list of priorities amongst other college work demands.