Title

A nowcast/forecast system of circulation dynamics for Narragansett Bay

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Date of Original Version

12-1-2001

Abstract

A nowcast/forecast system of circulation dynamics for Narragansett Bay is being developed as part of a three-year project funded by the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP). This paper presents the calibration, validation and forecasting skill assessment of a two-dimensional vertically averaged hydrodynamic model that will serve as the core of the system. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated, to tidal dynamics, during a 91-day period from September through December 2000 and had average RMS errors of 3% and 15% when compared to water level and vertically averaged ADCP data, respectively, from 11 stations within Narragansett Bay. The hydrodynamic model was validated, to tidal dynamics, during a 91-day period from December 2000 through March 2001 and had average RMS errors of 3.5% and 14% when compared to water level and vertically averaged ADCP data, respectively, from seven stations throughout Narragansett Bay. The forecasting skill of the model was assessed through the application of a synthetic open boundary condition that contained a combination of non-local (meteorological) and tidally induced water level data. The non-local forcing was derived from the operational NOAA Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Model while the tidally induced water level was created from the open boundary tidal harmonic coefficients determined during the hydrodynamic model's calibration. The forecast model was applied during the 91-day calibration period and the predictions were compared to water level and vertically averaged ADCP data from 11 stations within Narragansett Bay resulting in average RMS errors of 7.6% and 15% for water level and currents, respectively.

Publication Title

Estuarine and Coastal Modeling: Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference

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