Document Type

Article

Date of Original Version

1980

Abstract

AlI 74 ppm (1 ppm = 1.77 E 14 moles CO 2) of anthropogenic CO 2 can be accounted for in atmosphere (45 ppm) and ocean (29 ppm) by a simple "diffusive / descending-water" model. 3.8 ppm remain in the mixed layer (at equilibrium), 19.1 have diffused into intermediate waters (at 1.3 cm 2 / sec). and 5.7 ppm have been advected by the North Atlantic Deep, and the Antarctic Intermediate and Bottom Waters. The diffusive uptake must be driven by a realistic "interrupted exponential" atmospheric driving function, with 23 years of no growth between the W orld W ars. The 575 m surface-ocean box required by a two-box air-sea equilibrium model, is a useful parameterization of diffusion plus thermohaline circulation, with only the 75 m wind-stirred layer near equilibrium. Future atmospheric projections from such a model are at the upper limit ofthose from kinetic box models, reaching 600 ppm by 2030 AD for most scenarios.

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