DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY: A CASE STUDY OF THE ROCK CUT ROAD AREA, TOWN OF NEWBURGH, ORANGE COUNTY, NEW YORK

This report presents a development impact assessment methodology for an analysis of development possibilities in a rural area. The methodology was used to determine conclusive statements about the Rock Cut Road study area in the Town of Newburgh in Orange County, New York with which to base recommendations for growth management. The methodology involved (1) the examination of existing conditions of an area such as the degree and type of existing development, zoning limitations, and environmental sensitivities; (2) the development of various development scenarios; (3) the disaggregation of development impacts into several distinct impacts relative to each scenario; (4) the projection of their relative effects on existing conditions; and (5) the comparison of each scenario within the existing conditions. From this is determined a best growth option and finally recommendations to put it into action. The study considers development impacts within four different scenarios: (1) Without municipal sewers (the current practice) under existing zoning; (2) Without sewers but under a soil-based zoning concept whereby soil capacities determine adequate minimum lot size; (3) With sewer extension to the study area under

recommendations for growth management.
The methodology involved (1)  The study considers development impacts within four different scenarios: (1) Without municipal sewers (the current practice) under existing zoning; (2) Without sewers but under a soil-based zoning concept whereby soil capacities determine adequate minimum lot size; (3) With sewer extension to the study area under for this study was the Town's concern for the possibility of a tremendous increase in density from two proposed large developments; High Ridge, a clustered 304 unit development, the The Commons At Orange Lake, a 509 clustered development.
Although the study area is rural (predominate lot size is at least one acre except for a small subdivision fronting Orange Lake), current zoning permits medium density development (2 units per acre) to high density (up to 12 units per acre).
The two proposed developments would result in a density of up to 6 units per acre.
The Town of Newburgh in Orange County, New York is currently experiencing significant development pressures in both of its suburban/urban and rural areas. As a result of its newly developed sewer system and the anticipated expansion of its water system, development potential of much of the Town will increase. It is clear that there is a critical need for the Town to take an inventory of existing conditions and to improve its land use policies regarding manageable and timely growth.
The Town of Newburgh, recognizing the importance of managing its growth, entered into a contract with Garling Associates in March of 1989 to develop a master plan for the iv Town. This researcher, as part of that firm, was responsible for all studies for the Town regarding the Master plan project. Additionally, smaller area studies were to supplement the master plan. The present Rock Cut Road Area Study is the most significant of these studies.
It must be noted that although Garling Associates was formally responsible to the Town for this study and is Therefore, an imminent need exists for a growth management strategy not only for the Town but especially for the rural areas of the northern and western quadrants.
The following study is an analysis of the impacts from potential development of vacant land in one the larger rural areas in the Town of Newburgh; the Rock Cut Road study area.
(see Map 1) The analysis considers existing, proposed, and potential developments throughout the Rock Cut Road study area and attempts to highlight the minimum and maximum development impacts that could realistically be experienced.
The underlying concern for the study is the perceived Review and the Wetland Regulations) in addition to a 20 percent growth in population, the development of a municipal sewer system, commercial air service at Stewart International Airport, and tremendous growth over the last 5 years.
The problems to be addressed by this study relate to growth management. Present land use controls are inadequate regarding impacts of rapid development on environmentally sensitive lands. The Town needs policies that can guide growth at rates sustainable by the environment and existing infrastructure.
A fundamental goal of the study is to determine and assess the range of impact from potential development on the infrastructure and environment. This is illustrated by four scenarios. The study includes an analysis of existing zoning and implications for rezoning of the area based on findings within this report. The determination of the most appropriate zoning for the study area will likely have tremendous significance not only throughout the study area, but also for the Town as a whole in terms of the preparation of the subsequent master plan.

A. SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
Four development scenarios are used throughout the study to provide a range with which to gauge the impacts of the variables on various densities. These scenarios include two with municipal sewer and water services and two without. The study area is currently unsewered but bordering the Town sewer and water districts. Two developers propose these services to be extended. The analysis also considers the potential for a Critical Environmental Area (CEA) designation and an analysis of current zoning. These impacts will then be compared to determine conclusions and recommendations for action by the Town.
The study will analyze the increased demand on the infrastructure, environment, and the impacts that the increased population will have on the local public school system. Together, the parts will provide a rational basis for concluding which development scenario may be most appropriate for the present and future growth of the study area as well as the Town as a whole.
In this sense, the study will help the Town to understand how it can develop the goals for growth management.   A twenty year period of total expected buildout, 1990 to 2010, will be the point of analysis for maximum traffic impact.

A. TRAFFIC GENERATION
In order to determine the impact on the traffic levels along Rock Cut Road that the development scenarios might generate, the following multipliers in Table 4 were used to determine the number of daily trips and peak hour rates per unit type.

Unit Type
Single Family Townhouse .51 *A trip is one vehicular movement; i.e., from a home to a store or school, the return movement is a second trip; thus a round trip from home to store and back is considered two trips. Source: Trip Generation, 3rd ed., Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE).
There is a considerable range in traffic generation from the various development scenarios. As Table 4 below demonstrates, the average annual daily traffic (AADT) level from predominately townhouse development is considerably less than single family units in a sewered development scenario, approximately 32 percent less. This is still 220 percent greater than a non-sewered scenario and 427 percent greater than the soil based scenario.      Existing levels of service, computed in 1987 for the High Ridge DEIS, depict the following conditions in Table 10.   In all scenarios, impact on the Kindergarden (K) through 6th grades are expected to be greatest while the high school grades (10th through 12th) would be expected to experience the smallest increase.  (594) would allow an increase of 40 percent in further enrollment.
The acreage of this school site (48 acres) could provide necessary room for expansion.

Wallkill Central School District
The  Table 14 below.
Development of this portion of the study area under existing conditions would effectively put the school district at maximum functional capacity by adding 307 new students. If this area were provided with sewers, buildout would bring the student population of the district from 11 percent to 14 percent over the functional capacity of the district.
However, if this were to occur, it would be expected to occur over at least 20 years.

B. RECOMMENDATIONS
The general land use strategy proposed for the Rock Cut Road study area outlined below calls for several changes; amendments to the current zoning law and the subdivision regulations, expansion of infrastructure, preservation of open space, and completion of the currently on-goning master plan project. Further, a CEA designation is suggested for the area surrounding Orange Lake and its supporting designated freshwater wetlands as part of the mechanism to improve the environmental quality of the area.
The recommendations are based on the primary conclusion that intensity of development within the study area should be reduced to permit more accomodating growth. Although on-site septic and water use is recommended for the northern portion  b. Provide for an additional 100 foot buffer around these areas (100 feet above the DEC buffer area) in which septic systems will not be permitted and drainage will be controlled through the use of stilling basins to prevent erosion and siltation.

Completion of the Master Plan
The town has a critical need for updating and improving its land use plans and policies. This should include an understanding of the relative impacts that development would have on the rural versus suburban/urban areas town-wide. From this, priorities for preservation and development can be understood and formulated into goals. Equal attention should be given to opportunities and constraints in all areas of the Town resulting in a balanced plan for both conservation and growth.